春節過後,本應是春和景明,草長鶯飛二月天,奈何瘋子騙子敗家子,頭腦一熱,中東戰火沒日沒夜,老天賞飯吃的好地方,懷璧其罪,慘成人間地獄,卒不忍讀。
花旗國金毛獅王做夢也在吹噓贏麻,前言不對後語,驢腿對上馬嘴,連天竺國的三哥都自嘆弗如,但真實的情況又是如何,估計一時半會兒也不會有真相,全世界的人都在目睹帝國衰落的黃昏,儘管西方的強大話語權時時左右主流傳播,但也不乏旁觀的清者,近日瀏覽到3月18日有一位澳大利亞墨爾本的學者Shanaka Anslem Perera,在推特上發表了一番感想,頗有鳳雛之明,今特地介紹給大家一起來欣賞,原文並沒有標題,所配中文僅供參考。
China has not fired a single missile in this war. It has not lost a single soldier. It has not deployed a single warship to the Strait of Hormuz. And it is winning on every axis simultaneously. 此役之中,中國未發一彈,未損一兵,未遣一艦,然謂之「面面俱贏」實不爲過。
Start with energy. Chinese-flagged tankers continue transiting Hormuz under the permissioned chokepoint. While Western commercial shipping has collapsed by 97 percent, China receives roughly 1.3 million barrels per day of Iranian crude paid in yuan through channels the IRGC specifically exempts. The same blockade that is starving the global food system is delivering discounted oil to the world’s largest importer at prices no spot market can match. 首論能源,五星旗油輪獲准通行霍姆茲海峽要衝,西方商業航運量驟降97%,而中國獲得伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊特許,日均接收本幣支付的130萬桶伊朗原油。此場封鎖導致全球糧食系統短缺,卻讓世界最大的石油進口國以無可比擬的低價獲得石油。
Now layer intelligence. The People’s Liberation Army is watching the most detailed live demonstration of American military capability in two decades. Hypersonic interceptor performance. THAAD engagement envelopes. Reaper drone vulnerability profiles. Electronic warfare countermeasures. F-35 sortie rates. B-2 emission signatures that a Chinese firm already claims to have detected. Carrier endurance limits under extended deployment. Every data point the PLA would need a decade of espionage to acquire is being broadcast in real time by a war China did not start, does not fund, and does not need to participate in. 在情報方面,解放軍注視近二十年來最詳盡的美軍實力展示。高超音速攔截性能、薩德系統的交戰範圍、死神無人機的脆弱性分析、電子戰對抗、F-35的出動率、一家中國公司聲稱已探測到的B-2轟炸機的輻射特徵、航母在長期部署下的續航極限……解放軍需要十年才能獲取的數據,如今都被一場中國既未發動、也未資助、更無需參與的戰爭細呈出來。
Now layer supply chains. China controls approximately 90 percent of global rare earth processing. The precision-guided munitions being depleted at historic rates, the 5,000-pound bunker busters, the THAAD interceptors, the Patriot rounds, all require rare earth elements in their guidance systems, motors, and electronics. Every missile fired over Iran draws down a stockpile whose replacement depends on Chinese processing. Beijing banned or restricted rare earth exports in 2025. The arsenal being emptied and the supply chain needed to refill it are both gated by Chinese decisions. 在供應鏈的各個環節,中國掌握全球約90%的稀土加工。那些正以歷史性速度消耗殆盡的精確制導武器,例如5000磅重的鑽地彈、薩德攔截系統以及愛國者導彈,它們的制導系統、發動機和電子元件都需要稀土元素。每一枚射向伊朗的導彈都會消耗其庫存,而庫存的補充則依賴於中方的加工。北京已於2025年禁止或限制稀土出口。消耗的武器庫以及補充這些武器所需的供應鏈,皆受制於中方。
Now layer food. China suspended phosphate exports through August 2026. It halted NPK blend shipments. India asked Beijing for emergency urea on March 12. Beijing said no. China is simultaneously the largest buyer of Iranian oil through the permissioned strait and the largest restrictor of the fertiliser inputs the rest of the world needs to plant. It receives energy at discount while denying nutrients to competitors. The food crisis compounds in every country except China. 至於糧食,中國暫停了磷酸鹽出口,直至2026年8月。它還停止了複合肥的出口。3月12日,印度向北京請求緊急尿素援助未果。中國一方面是伊朗石油的最大買家,另一方面又是世界其他地區種植所需化肥的最大限制者。它以折扣價獲得能源,卻拒絕向競爭者提供養分。中國以外的國家,糧食危機進一步惡化。
Now layer finance. Russia’s A7A5 stablecoin, processing an estimated $56 to $93 billion according to Chainalysis, operates on infrastructure that parallels Chinese cross-border payment ambitions. Every SWIFT restriction, every sanctions-evasion channel, every crypto rail that sustains Iran and Russia through this war demonstrates the viability of non-dollar settlement systems that Beijing has been building for a decade. 金融方面,據Chainalysis估計,俄羅斯的A7A5穩定幣交易額在560億至930億美元之間,其基礎設施與中國的跨境支付戰略如出一轍。每一項SWIFT限制、每一個規避制裁的渠道、每一條支撐伊朗和俄羅斯度過這場戰爭的加密貨幣通道,證明北京十年來一直在構建的非美元結算系統的可行性。
China pays nothing for this war. It risks nothing. It learns everything about American military capability. It receives discounted energy. It restricts the fertiliser inputs its competitors need. It watches the US deplete precision munitions whose replacement depends on Chinese rare earths. It observes the alliance fractures that weaken the coalition it would face over Taiwan. And it does all of this while officially calling for peace. 中國在這場戰爭中無需付出任何代價,也無需承擔任何風險。它全面瞭解了美國的軍事實力,享受著能源折扣,限制了競爭對手所需的化肥供應,眼睜睜地看著美國耗盡依賴中國稀土資源的精確制導武器,觀察著聯盟的分裂,削弱了其在臺灣問題上將要面對的聯盟力量。凡此種種,皆與公開呼籲和平同步進行。
The United States spent $16.5 billion and 15,000 precision strikes to prevent ten Iranian nuclear bombs. China spent nothing and gained a live-fire intelligence windfall, discounted energy, fertiliser leverage over half the developing world, and a real-time stress test of every American weapons system it may one day face. 美國花費165億美元和15000次精確打擊,阻止了伊朗部署十枚核彈。而中國卻一分錢都沒花,就獲得了實戰情報、低價能源、對半數發展中國家的化肥供應優勢,以及對未來可能遇到的所有美國武器系統的實時壓力測試。
The war has many losers. It has one silent winner. And the winner did not fire a shot.Deep dive analysis - 這場戰爭有很多輸家,卻有一個默默無聞的贏家。而這位贏家甚至沒有開過一槍。深度分析 –
戰火正酣,前景黯淡,美國打不贏就是輸,伊朗打不輸就是贏。佩雷拉的分析文章,僅僅是他的一家之言,但也有值得我們參考的地方。俗語說兼聽則明,《周易》的第二十卦是風地〈觀〉卦,六個爻可以逐次提升觀點、擴大視野,使你看得更真、更深、更廣、更大,對宇宙人生、現實百態的瞭解有更客觀中立的觀點。肉眼,天眼,慧眼,法眼,佛眼,逐次精進,境界不同,看到的景象自然就不同。相反來説,若握有權柄的在位之人,童觀窺觀,極其主觀,偏見固執,左右不和,前後矛盾,食言而肥,則是百姓蒼生之大不幸。
本期目錄...